WNBA · 2026-06-17
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury
Mortgage Matchup Center
Las Vegas Aces
10-4
VS
Phoenix Mercury
4-11
81%
Las Vegas Aces win probability · -275
Tale of the tape
81%Win probability19%
71%Win rate27%
Strong-275 · BetMGM
Las Vegas Aces to win
A clear 81% edge — one of the cleaner spots on the board.
Our read leans Las Vegas Aces over Phoenix Mercury — a 81% win probability once everything is weighed. A clear 81% edge — one of the cleaner spots on the board.
Why we lean this way
- Records: Phoenix Mercury 4-11 at home vs Las Vegas Aces 10-4.
- Home court: weighted at +6% for Phoenix Mercury — home advantage swings bigger in the WNBA than most leagues.
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center.
The verdict
The play we like: Las Vegas Aces. It is a strong lean at 81% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.
Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.
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