Full transparency
The Track Record
We grade ourselves in public — no cherry-picking, no deleting losers. No other AI pick site does this honestly.
120
Wins
147
Losses
44.9%
Win rate
-4.8%
ROI (flat 1u)
2
Pending
Win rate by confidence
Confident picks 32-53 · 37.6%Judge us on Strong & Solid leans. Toss-ups are coin-flips we post for fun and to keep learning — tracked honestly, but they should not define the record.
Strong14-13 · 51.9%
Solid18-40 · 31.0%
Lean85-89 · 48.9%
Toss-up0-2
How the model learns
Calibration & self-tuning
Brier score 0.2715 (lower is sharper) across 267 graded picks. The model now self-corrects toward these results.
| We predicted | Picks | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 70 | 50.0% |
| 55-60% | 128 | 45.3% |
| 60-65% | 31 | 35.5% |
| 65-70% | 13 | 15.4% |
| 70-80% | 17 | 52.9% |
| 80-100% | 8 | 62.5% |
By segment: worldcup 11-12 · mlb 99-129 · wnba 10-6 · Strong 14-13 · Solid 18-40 · Lean 85-89 · Toss-up 0-2
Monthly performance
| Month | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09 | 36-34 | 51.4% |
| 2026-08 | 23-37 | 38.3% |
| 2026-07 | 20-21 | 48.8% |
| 2026-06 | 39-54 | 41.9% |
Latest results
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Model | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 53% | win |
| 2026-10-03 | MLB | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 58% | loss |
| 2026-10-01 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 53% | win |
| 2026-09-30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Tampa Bay Rays | 60% | loss |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 55% | loss |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 58% | loss |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays | Cincinnati Reds | 55% | loss |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays | Cincinnati Reds | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 58% | win |
| 2026-09-25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Tampa Bay Rays | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | Chicago Cubs | 64% | loss |
| 2026-09-24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers | 59% | win |
| 2026-09-23 | MLB | Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants | Minnesota Twins | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-23 | MLB | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros | 53% | loss |
| 2026-09-23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals | Chicago White Sox | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-20 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-20 | MLB | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-20 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | 58% | win |
| 2026-09-19 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-19 | MLB | Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-19 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-18 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-18 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | 57% | win |
| 2026-09-16 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 58% | win |
| 2026-09-16 | MLB | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Detroit Tigers | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-16 | MLB | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Boston Red Sox | 53% | loss |
| 2026-09-16 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Detroit Tigers | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles | 53% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | 53% | loss |
Showing the most recent 40 graded picks. Full history rolls up into the monthly table above.
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