Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays grade out as the side to be on versus Boston Red Sox, at 53% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 53% — entertainment only, not a spot to press.

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Boston Red Sox sit 29-41 (0.414), Toronto Blue Jays 35-38 (0.479).
• Last 10: Boston Red Sox 3-7 (L2), Toronto Blue Jays 5-5 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Boston Red Sox -9, Toronto Blue Jays -17 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Boston Red Sox hand the ball to Jake Bennett; Toronto Blue Jays counter with Max Scherzer. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Boston Red Sox in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Toronto Blue Jays. It is a near coin-flip at 53% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.