San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals

The model lands on St. Louis Cardinals here, giving them a 59% chance to come out on top against San Diego Padres. A 59% lean with real separation between these two.

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: St. Louis Cardinals sit 40-31 (0.563), San Diego Padres 37-35 (0.514).
• Last 10: St. Louis Cardinals 7-3 (W2), San Diego Padres 5-5 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals +16, San Diego Padres -14 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to Kyle Leahy; San Diego Padres counter with TBD. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to St. Louis Cardinals in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a solid lean at 59% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.